Preview: Manchester City vs. Chelsea – Battle for the Top Four
How much did Enzo Maresca's team grew since the start of the season? Will Chelsea keep their Champions League spot after Round 23?
Chelsea heads to the Etihad in Round 23 of the Premier League to face Manchester City. The Blues are coming off a 3-1 win against Wolverhampton, where Trevor Chalobah made a memorable return to Stamford Bridge with an outstanding performance. Chelsea has broken their winless streak and is looking to recapture the excellent form they displayed before the holidays.
City ended their drought with a decisive 6-0 victory over Ipswich, snapping Guardiola’s bleak spell of losses and draws. The last time the Blues met the Citizens was in the season opener, where City earned their first three points of the campaign with a 2-0 victory, thanks to goals from Haaland and Kovacic.
However, things have settled at Chelsea since then, with Maresca’s system gaining traction and cohesion. This game will be an excellent test to see just how far Chelsea has grown this season. Chelsea’s last win at Etihad was a 1-0 victory in the Champions League final of 2021.
What’s at Stake Here?
Neither team is currently aiming for the title at this point in the season. Liverpool are at least 10 points ahead of both Chelsea and City, and they also have a postponed game against Everton, which will likely result in an additional three points for Arne Slot’s team. They are currently trailed by Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, and the OPTA Supercomputer grants them the title in 92% of its simulations.
Although the race for the title is probably no longer within reach for these two teams—or at least it seems like an unachievable target—a finish in the top 4 definitely is. Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Newcastle are sitting just below the Champions League line and are hoping to climb back into those favorable spots.
Newcastle faces Southampton this round, which is likely to result in three points for the Magpies. As a result, Chelsea needs a win to maintain their position comfortably in the Champions League spots. Of course, Manchester City will look to do the same and push forward with the momentum from their 6-0 win.
How Things Have Changed
Both Chelsea and Manchester City aim to control the game and hug the ball as much as possible. Last time, the two teams shared possession, with City having a slight edge of 2% but Chelsea’s chances were more qualitative — 1.01 generated xG compared to City’s 0.77. Yet the Blues lacked a clinical edge to convert.
What is interesting to note is how much Chelsea’s structure has changed since then. Back then, Enzo Fernandez played as a number 10 behind Nicolas Jackson, instead of a pivot alongside Caicedo, with Cole Palmer taking the right wing and Nkunku the left one. A big problem that Enzo Maresca has to solve for this game is deploying a solid midfield structure. Chelsea has looked at their most balanced when Romeo Lavia has played alongside Moises Caicedo. With Lavia out because of injury, Maresca has little to no options. Dewsbury-Hall is definitely not Maresca’s first choice, while Casadei and Veiga have seen extremely limited minutes outside the Conference League.
Manchester City is notorious for building and attacking through the middle with 69% of their shots coming from central areas, compared to Chelsea’s 63%. In the opening game of the season, Guardiola used a sneaky trick to counter Chelsea’s 4-2-4 pressing shape by pulling Kevin De Bruyne from midfield and into the wider areas. This created a bit of confusion about who marked him in that area.
Chelsea attempted to overload City’s midfield with Malo Gusto inverting and creating a numerical advantage in that area, giving Cole Palmer more space and putting him in one-on-one situations. However Chelsea lacked sharpness in the final third and failed to convert.
Key Statistics - Individual Performance and Transitions
Both Chelsea and City are teams that create, and more often than not, through individual performance. Manchester City has been a bit more clinical, with an xG difference of -1.88 compared to Chelsea’s -3.96. Both teams share similar statistical profiles, as expected for two managers with similar philosophies.
However, one big issue that Manchester City could pose is the intensity and efficiency of their pressing. The Citizens are efficient in recovering the ball in the attacking third. Transition for Manchester City is equal to pressing. Absorbing that pressure will fall on Chelsea’s back line to be composed and avoid mistakes that might lead to dangerous situations, as well as resist the constant assault that Manchester City is known for. Robert Sanchez is probably a player which that pressing will target, as he made a few mistakes throughout the season by misplacing passes when under pressure.
Yet, if the Blues bypass the press and get the ball out in transition, then they will need to find efficiency in converting when in these situations. With 1.5 shots per game coming from counter attacking situations — second best record in the league — Chelsea has scored only 6 times with this approach. Another area where Manchester City is vulnerable is down the wings, but Chelsea also struggles in this area, as there is no box number 9 to be at the end of those crosses.
To get a good result on Etihad, Chelsea will need to find efficiency in finishing the chances they create — and they create plenty, looking at the rolling xG it seems like Chelsea are overcoming their dry spell — and maintain a proper and disciplined defensive structure, and avoid unnecessary fouls in dangerous areas, or even giving away penalties.
Predictions
Manchester City is currently the favourites in this encounter. OPTA Supercomputers see them coming on top in 48.2% of simulations, while Chelsea wins in just 28.2%. Manchester City is without a defeat in the last eleven games against The Blues and has won the last three duels.
So will Chelsea grab the three points and maintain their position in the top 4 spots? Or will Manchester City continue their run after smashing through Ipswich?